<< News & Events

TerraMetrics AG Projects Above-Trend US Wheat Yield Potential, But Near-Term Weather Bears Watching

First of Eight Rounds of Satellite-Based Crop Assessments Just Released 

LAWRENCE, KS, March 22, 2024 — “Satellite NDVI greenness signals for Kansas and much of the Wheat Belt are mostly above average at this stage of the year.  Winter precipitation, much of which ended up as soil moisture combined with significant stretches of warmer-than-normal and above freezing temperatures, causing many fields to break dormancy early.  However, with widespread freeze risk expected over the coming days, freeze risk can’t be discounted.”  

This is just one of the observations about the US winter wheat crop from the first of eight GreenReport®  Winter Wheat Yield Forecasts for 2024 published by TerraMetrics Agriculture, Inc., a collaborative project with the Kansas Applied Remote Sensing Laboratory (KARS) at the University of Kansas. “2024 marks the start of our 22nd year of real-time, satellite-based crop yield forecasting with TMAI,” stated Jude Kastens, PhD, KARS Research Director and Research Associate Professor at the University of Kansas.  Kastens is also senior research analyst for TerraMetrics AG.

TMAI’s initial US winter wheat yield estimate of 51.2 bushels per acre represents an increase of 0.7 bushel above the five-year average of 50.5 bushels per acre. “Over the last 30 years, US winter wheat yields exhibited a fairly steady and substantial linear uptrend of 0.34 bushels per acre per year,” stated Kastens.  “Satellite greenness values suggest that the more developmentally advanced US winter wheat fields generally appear to be off to a good start.  While freeze risk cannot be discounted, the crop is very young and still holds some cold weather hardiness.”

TMAI’s next US GreenReport Winter Wheat Yield Forecast will be published on April 5th.  Subsequent releases will be published biweekly thru June 26th.  For additional information and to receive a complimentary copy of TerraMetrics GreenReport weekly e-newsletter, contact us at jed@tmaiag.com.