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TerraMetrics Ag Projects Above-Trend
US Wheat Yield Potential, But Weather Concerns Remain

First Round of Satellite-Based Crop Assessments Just Released

LAWRENCE, KS, March 28, 2025 — “Satellite NDVI greenness signals suggest that the more developmentally advanced Central and Southern Plains US winter wheat fields are off to an average start. Moist soils and opportune snow cover have thus far limited winter kill. However, Oklahoma and Texas are starting to suffer from increasing dryness and desiccating high winds.”

These observations about the US winter wheat crop are from the first of eight GreenReport® Winter Wheat Yield Forecasts for 2025 published by TerraMetrics Agriculture, Inc., a collaborative project with Kansas Applied Remote Sensing (KARS) at the University of Kansas. “2025 marks the start of our 24th year of real-time, satellite-based crop yield forecasting with TMAI,” stated Jude Kastens, PhD, KARS Director and Associate Research Professor at the University of Kansas. Kastens is also senior research analyst for TerraMetrics Ag.

TMAI’s initial US winter wheat yield estimate of 52.1 bushels per acre represents an increase of 2.0 bushels above the five-year average of 50.1 bushels per acre. “Over the last 30 years, US winter wheat yields exhibited a fairly steady and substantial linear uptrend of 0.345 bushels per year,” stated Kastens. “For perspective, the current record US yield is 55.3 bu/ac achieved in 2016 followed by 53.6 in 2019 and 51.7 last year (2024).”

TMAI’s next US GreenReport Winter Wheat Yield Forecast will be published on April 11th. Subsequent releases will be published biweekly thru July 4th. For additional information go to www.TerraMetrics.ag. For a complimentary copy of the TerraMetrics GreenReport® Crop Condition e-newsletter, CLICK HERE.